IDP, Injured Reserve and Frustration

As I was moving Buffalo LB Keith Ellison to the IR section on my spreadsheets and bolding him in blood red, I was somewhat surprised to see the lengthy list of IDP players that have hit IR this season. Some teams were hit numerous times, as were us fantasy players. I realized by looking at the lists that this year has seemed worse than most from an IDP perspective, and I can’t recall making as many moves simply based on IR moves in years past. So I decided to take a closer look and review the impact of those losses to the NFL teams, and the impact of the replacement players.

Defensive line:

Ma’ake Kemoetau, Carolina DT
Week lost: Preseason
NFL Impact: Big loss for the Panthers defense. A team that has always prided itself on run defense has allowed an average of 130 yards a game.
Fantasy Impact: “Kemo” has never been, and likely would have not been a fantasy impact player, and he was replaced by Hollis Thomas, who is a complete fantasy non-factor.

Adam Carriker, St Louis, DT
Week lost: Preseason
NFL Impact: Loss for an already struggling defense.
Fantasy impact: I was actually somewhat bullish on his prospects, and selected him as a DT in the Slaughterhouse all-IDP league. LaJaun Ramsey has filled in, but he’s not an option for a roster spot in any IDP league.

Rob Meier, Jacksonville DT
Week lost: Preseason
NFL Impact: Meier was expected to be a pass-rusher off the edge in their 3-4 sets, and an interior lineman in the 4-3, so his loss really threw a kink into the Jags flexibility.
Fantasy impact: Meier has always had a little fantasy value, as he throws in a few sacks every year.
John Henderson saw the most upside with the Meier loss, as he was set for a rotational role. But he still was not much of a factor.

Reggie Hayward Jacksonville DE
Week lost: Preseason
NFL Impact: Before the season even started the Jags lost two DL starters, and they really had no other options. This was a big loss in their pass-rushing defense, as through week eleven, the Jags have just 5 ½ sacks among their DL.
Fantasy impact: None. Derrick Harvey got a full-time gig with Hayward and Meier gone, but through week ten he has managed zero sacks.

Jamal Williams, San Diego, NT
Week lost: Week one
NFL Impact: Big. Williams was the Chargers only true NT that could handle a full-time role. Since his loss, they have struggled with Ogemdi Nwagbuo and Ian Scott, and for the most part the Chargers vaunted rush defense has been very iffy.
Fantasy impact: Williams had some value as an IDP player in deeper DT required leagues, but his replacements have none.

Antwan Odom, Cincinnati DE
Week lost: Week Six
NFL Impact: Surprisingly little. Odom was on a tear from a statistical perspective, with eight sacks, but since his loss the Bengals have remained a stout rush defense team and have averaged the same number of sacks.
Fantasy Impact: The loss of Odom hurt some IDP teams bad, as he was probably a WW pick that was making a big-time impact on rosters. His replacement has been Jonathan Fanene, and he’s also been a fantasy surprise, with 3 ½ sacks in 3 starts.

Kris Jenkins, NY Jets, NT
Week lost: Week Eleven
NFL Impact: Too soon to tell, but it will definitely hurt the Jets. Jenkins is a talented, plug-em and forget em type player that jams up the middle.
Fantasy Impact: None. Jenkins had just 11 solos and no sacks this year, so nobody was using him anyway. Sione Pouha will take his place, and he has 19 solos. Still little impact there.

Linebackers:

Stewart Bradley, Philadelphia MLB
Week Lost: Preseason
NFL Impact: It really threw the Eagles into a tizzy, as they went with Omar Gaither, who also ended up on IR later, and tried the Jeremiah Trotter experiment, which ended badly. They ended up spending heavily to bring in Will Witherspoon.
Fantasy Impact: Bradley was expected to be a top-twenty IDP performer, so his loss right before the season opened crashed some teams in deep leagues before the season started. Gaither was not an adequate fantasy replacement, Mays was a bust, and Trotter was worse.

Angelo Crowell, Buffalo SLB
Week Lost: PreSeason
NFL Impact: Unknown, but Crowell had always been a decent fantasy performer when given the opportunity, and in Buffalo he was being drafted.
Fantasy Impact: Unknown, he was drafted in some leagues and was expected to win the starting gig. The rest of the year has been a mix of Chris Draft and Keith Ellison, but neither established themselves well enough to be useable in fantasy leagues.

Brian Urlacher, Chicago MLB
Week Lost: Week two
NFL Impact: Huge of course, Urlacher is the leader of the Bears defense, and they have struggled all year with him out. Their normally powerful defense has allowed over 22 points a week.
Fantasy Impact: Hunter Hillenmeyer has filled in for Urlacher, and he had barely scratched the fantasy surface. He’s behind Lance Briggs and Nick Roach in stats, and collected more than five solos just once.

Kawika Mitchell, Buffalo WLB
Week Lost: Week five
NFL Impact: Mitchell was a guy that had played all three positions in four weeks, so he had real value for the Bills. Ashlee Palmer replaced him, and was pretty much a disaster in run support. The real loss was later in the year when the Bills lost Keith Ellison.
Fantasy Impact: With 16-7 in four weeks of work, he was a starter in larger leagues. Ashlee Palmer came in and put up one useable week in three, then Chris Draft for a couple and finally safety Bryan Scott. Scott looks to be the one that has some real value, especially playing as a safety.

Keith Ellison, Buffalo SLB
Week Lost: Week 10
NFL Impact: Other than Posluszny, Ellison was the only LB you could count on throughout the year He started the year at WLB, then was moved to SLB with the loss of Mitchell. The team really didn’t hurt at SLB with Ellison there, the loss was at WLB.
Fantasy Impact: This one hurt some fantasy players in deep leagues. Ellison had 15-10 through two weeks, and despite moving around was continually a decent scorer. Through ten weeks he was one of just 35 players in tackle-based leagues to collect more than 100 fantasy points. Replacing Ellison will be Chris Draft, a loss on all fronts.

Lofa Tatupu, Seattle MLB
Week Lost: Week Seven
NFL Impact: Less than expected. Tatupu was injured in one form or another in four of his seven weeks, and the team struggled to fill in for those times. Statistically speaking the Seahawks have been a worse run-defense team with Tatupu gone, but it’s hard to argue that David Hawthorne has not been equally as effective as Tatupu had been.
Fantasy Impact: It all depends if you were smart enough to snag David Hawthorne. If you drafted Tatupu as your LB1 and didn’t get Hawthorne….you are hurtin’. But teams that got Hawthorne are thanking their lucky stars. 23-5-2-2 in the last three easily lead all fantasy players in the NFL.

D’Qwell Jackson, Cleveland ILB
Week Lost: Week Seven
NFL Impact: Bad. The hapless Browns were already a disaster against the run, and losing your best run-stopper was not something they could easily recover from. In weeks 7 and 8, the Browns allowed an average of 186 rushing yards per game. Ugh. He was replaced by Kaluka Maiva for one game, then David Bowens slid down inside. Neither player is even in the same stratosphere as a LB.
Fantasy Impact: Another LB1 bit the dust, and there was no replacement in sight. Maybe David Bowens will turn out to be close, but the books’ still out on that one.

Eric Barton, Cleveland ILB
Week Lost: Week Nine
NFL Impact: major, especially considering the D’Qwell Jackson loss. The Browns opted to move OLB David Bowens inside, start Kaluka Maiava at the other ILB spot and start Jason Trusnik at OLB. This may be the worst LB squad in the NFL right now. Kevin Smith in Detroit must be licking his chops this week.
Fantasy Impact: Another bad hit. Like Jackson, there really is no good option on the team to replace him, so you will have to get lucky elsewhere. This week we will see how Kaluka Maiava does with a full game under his belt, but I’m not optimistic.

Pisa Tinoisamoa, Chicago, SLB
Week Lost: Week Seven
NFL Impact: Depends on how you look at it. With Urlacher gone, this loss hurt their depth, but the Bears got one half game out of Pisa as he was fighting injuries all year. Nick Roach filled in this year, albeit he was not a solid player. The last four weeks have been pretty brutal on the Bears “D”, as they have allowed 624 rushing yards. Losing Pisa was not a huge loss, but coupled with the Urlacher news they just couldn’t recover.
Fantasy Impact: Not much. Tinoisamoa was not a heavily drafted player due to his SLB role, and Nick Roach is a waiver player unless you are in a deep, deep league.

Tyjuan Hagler, Indianapolis SLB
Week Lost: Week Seven
NFL Impact: Not a lot, the Colts had Philip Wheeler in the wings, and he’s actually pretty close. This did hurt the Colts depth and pass defense a bit, as Hagler was better in coverage.
Fantasy Impact: Very little. Hagler was not a reasonable fantasy player, with just 18 solos on the season. Wheeler hasn’t done much better, so it’s a wash.

Thomas Davis, Carolina WLB
Week Lost: Week Ten
NFL Impact: It’s bad. A defense that was already struggling against the run fell completely off the charts with Davis missing. In the last two weeks against Atlanta and Miami, the Panthers have allowed 330 rushing yards. And it won’t get any better with Landon Johnson replacing him, who is injured himself.
Fantasy Impact: Maybe the worst of the year. In some scoring systems Davis was the #1 fantasy LB in the NFL. And like other losses, Landon Johnson is not going to be an adequate replacement. Jon Beason could be the one to take advantage.

Antonio Pierce, NY Giants, MLB
Week Lost: None yet
NFL Impact: Pierce is the QB of the defense, and unfortunately the Giants don’t have an adequate replacement. Clint Sintim was expected to push Pierce this year, but he has been a no-show and has been slow to develop. Jonathan Goff and Bryan Kehl both failed in relief, and Chase Blackburn is not a true MLB. So if he does not come back this will be a major blow to the Giants chances this year.
Fantasy Impact: Hard to say how Blackburn will do full time, but he did pretty well replacing Michael Boley earlier this year. I’d say since Pierce himself was a disappointment this year, Blackburn could be a pleasant cheap surprise.

Defensive Backs:

Kenny Phillips, NY Giants SS
Week Lost: Week Three
NFL Impact: At first it didn’t seem to be a huge loss, but as the year drags on it’s pretty apparent the Giants rushing defense has been questionable and inconsistent. Michael Johnson and CC Brown have both spent time at SS replacing Phillips, and neither one is nearly as proficient at run support. Now with Antonio Pierce MIA, it will become more of a loss.
Fantasy Impact: Huge. Phillips was expected to be a top-twenty player, and through two weeks he had 9-4 and 2 interceptions. His replacements have one sack and one interception in relief. I know many fantasy players snagged CC Brown or Johnson, but they have both fell well short of the mark.

Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo CB
Week Lost: Week Four
NFL Impact: It was not as bad as it could have been. With Nate Clements at the other corner, and a very good nickel back in Drayton Florence, the Bills missed McKelvin more in depth and nickel and dime packages than anything else. If Clements misses much time with his own injuries, we will see how badly it hurts.
Fantasy Impact: Little. McKelvin was not considered much of a fantasy player, and through three weeks his 8-2 was not much you would have missed. Florence is not much better, so this was an NFL and not a fantasy loss.

Brian Williams, Atlanta CB
Week Lost: Week Six
NFL Impact: It was a shocker to see the jaguars release Williams right before the Season started, but the Falcons wasted no time in snapping him up. He was expected to make the Falcons a much better overall team. Things were going well and Williams was fitting in well before the injury. At the time of his injury five games into the season, the Falcons had allowed three TD passes. Over the next three games the Falcons were hammered with seven. Brent Grimes is a nice nickel back, but is suspect in full-time coverage.
Fantasy Impact: As soon as Williams was picked up in preseason, many fantasy owners went out and picked him up as well. Through five games Williams put up 15-3 and an interception, not a real fantasy impact player, but his replacement has been worse. Grimes has struggled to stay in the starting grid.

Bob Sanders, Indianapolis SS
Week Lost: Week Nine
NFL Impact: Sanders may have landed on IR in week nine, but in reality he was there all year. He managed just 1 ½ games of work all year, and three solos and two assists were all he could muster. Melvin Bullitt has been the man all year, so nothing really changed, other than the “thought” of Sanders on the field. Overall, the loss of Sanders did hurt, as Bullitt is far from Sanders in run support.
Fantasy Impact: Luckily, most fantasy players avoided Sanders like the plague, unless he happened to fall far. Bullitt had been a very marginal fantasy player this year, and that’s somewhat surprising.

Chris Horton, Washington SS
Week Lost: Week Ten
NFL Impact: This was just another nail in the coffin on a bad overall football team. About the only thing the Skins had going for them was a pretty stout defense, especially against the pass. Reed Doughtry replaces Horton, and although he’s not a step down in pass support, he’s not as strong at the point of attack. It will show in their rush defense.
Fantasy Impact: Horton has been a player, albeit not a strong fantasy one. He started the year pretty strong, but really tailed off in the middle as teams basically had their way with Washington. Doughtry has proven the last two weeks to be a better bet for production, with 13-2, So if you owned Horton and nabbed Doughtry, you may come out ahead.

Marquand Manuel, Detroit SS
Week Lost: Week Eleven
NFL Impact: Another guy with a lot of potential, but was not a great player, on a bad team. Manuel would probably be a depth player on 24+ other NFL teams, but even so, he should be able to score. From a strictly football outlook, it was not a huge drop from him to Ko Simpson. And when you are as bad as the Lions, it’s hard to notice.
Fantasy Impact: Manuel started the year pretty well, with 27-5 through six, but his lack of any big plays kept him off most starting lineups. His replacement on the other hand (Ko Simpson) has put up 19-3 in the last three games. He has a better shot at success.

Roy Williams. Cincinnati SS
Week Lost: Eleven
NFL Impact: Like Bob Sanders, Williams may have officially hit IR in week eleven, but he was a no-show after week five. Chinedum Ndukwe replaced him, and Ndukwe is much better in coverage, although not as punishing a hitter. It’s a wash in NFL terms.
Fantasy Impact: If Williams can stay up close, he can score. This year he had 14-7 through three games, and I was thinking he was going to make me eat my words that he would lose his starting gig by week six. I was right, but not for the reason I thought. I’d prefer Ndukwe myself for a starter, and since he was slotted in for week four, he has managed 28 solos. But no big plays. Both players have been disappointing for the most part.