A look at the Rooks..IDP that is.

Defensive Back Version

It may be just game six coming up, but it’s time for a look at the NFL rookies and how they have produced from a fantasy outlook.

Every year, a rookie DB steps up into fantasy prominence, and many like to bank on the “rookie CB rule” for the reason. Personally, with the way the game is evolving, I think the rookie rule is way overrated (IMO). But count on it, there will be a couple from this list that will likely make the top twenty.

Al Afalava (Chicago SS 6th round)
If you forced ne to name a defensive MVP in Chicago right now, I would be hard-pressed to name anyone other than Afalava. Not that he has done squat from a fantasy outlook, but can you imagine this team if he had not stepped up and taken the starting gig? With Mike Brown now stalking RBs in Kansas City, and Kevin Payne proving he is just not the guy to plug in full time, Afalaya appeared virtually out of nowhere to lock down the troubled SS position. He’s not making a mark with stats or big plays, but what you should notice about him is that you don’t notice him. He does not make highlight films getting burned, missing tackles or blowing assignments. His fantasy worth is up in the air, but based on the fact that Bears SS have been valuable in the past, this may be a “wait until next year” situation.

Allen Asher (Minnesota CB, 3rd round)
Asher have been inactive every game this year, and he’s buried 6th on the depth chart. It’s entirely likely he will remain inactive and on the practice squad all year unless the injury bug hits the Vikes big time. The Vikings probably reached for Asher, as any 5’11 210+ pound CB is going to get some attention at the draft. He’s pretty worthless right now, and he’s so raw that it may be 2-3 years before he as a chance to make an impact. I’d probably give up on him now.

Kevin Barnes (Washington CB, 3rd round)
Barnes finally collected his first tackle of his NFL career vs. the Panthers, but don’t get used to it. He’s seeing limited action in relief in the dime package, and with Washington struggling against the run he won’t be needed much. He’s a potential for next year, but he appears at this time to be a depth player.

Darius Butler (New England CB 2nd round)
Through five games Butler has 3 solos and 3 defended passes. He had a break out game vs. the Ravens in week four, where he broke up a TD pass and a pass late in the game. He has earned more playing time, and the way the Patriots like to rotate in their defenders he will get opportunities. But despite all that, there is NO WAY he can move Springs or Bodden out of their corner spots, and he’s a long-shot to compete for nickel back time with Jonathan White. I actually like him long-term, and in a couple of years he could be a starter…on a team where the CB is rarely Fantasy worthy.

Jarius Byrd (Buffalo FS, 2nd round)
Byrd was drafted with every intention of starting at safety for the Bills, but they didn’t mean in week four. Byrd has stepped in with injuries to SS Bryan Scott and Donte Whitner. He has done a decent job so far, although this defense and team are pretty horrific. Byrd will get his shot at full-time stardom next season, and based on his big play ability in college, he could become a fantasy star. But for now, with Whitner back this week Byrd could move back to his nickel role if the teams decide George Wilson is more effective at SS. Long term Byrd is a valuable rookie who should be on most fantasy dynasty rosters.

Patrick Chung (New England S 2nd round)
Chung may be chomping at the bit to get involved (he has played very sparingly), but he has to get the trust of the coaching staff first. He has been a little slow learning the schemes, and has not proven to be a terrific tackler or cover safety. That’s doesn’t leave a lot of room for him to get on the field. Long term he has value, but the Pats are not going to get him on the field at the expense of Brandon Meriweather. If you own him, maybe next year.

Derek Cox (Jacksonville CB 3rd round)
It’s very telling that in the 41-0 rout by the Seahawks last week, that Seattle did not spend the whole game attacking Cox. They elected to go right after Pro Bowler Rashean Mathis to great success, and whether intended or not, that was a testament to how well Cox has settled into his role.
And from a fantasy outlook, he’s the ROY right now. 65 fantasy points, 23 solos and 2 interceptions is making fantasy owners’ socks roll up and down. Mine too, since I am starting him in a dynasty league right now. He is the most valuable rookie DB in the game right now, and is in line to be a top-twenty player.

Vontae Davis (Miami CB 1st round)
Despite not developing into the rookie that won a starting job (Sean Smith won that), Davis seems happy with his role, and is looking forward to next year when he feels he and Smith will be the starters. The Dolphins are probably reasonably happy with the way things have gone, but they are certainly not pleased that Davis was unable to step up and take the starting job. As the 25th overall selection in the draft on a team that had needs at corner, the nickel role was not what DC John Bonamego envisioned. For you dynasty and keeper guys, Davis still has plenty of upside for the future. He is a physically imposing and athletic player that may be better suited long-term as a FS in this league. I’d hold onto him for awhile and see what develops.

Louis Delmas (Detroit, FS, 2nd round)
If any rookie is going to challenge Derek Cox for the top spot among DB rookies this year, it will be Delmas. By all rights it shouldn’t even be a competition, as Delmas landed from day one into the FS starting role on a team that will be challenged.
Delmas has collected 22 solos and a sack in his five games, and has played so well that DC Gunther Cunningham has considered moving Delmas to CB. Relax, fantasy owners, unless something happens due to injuries at corner, Delmas will stay at FS. He’s a keeper, and should be a solid performer for years to come.

Bradley Fletcher (St Louis CB, 3rd round)
The six-footer out of Iowa has made some inroads into the rotation in St Louis, earning his first start in week five vs. the Vikings. He has been burned frequently by playing out of position and missing assignments, but on this team who would notice? Expect him to see plenty of playing time this year, slowly cutting into the playing time of the disappointing Jonathan Wade. He could supplant him completely this year once the year is basically over, and he could have some value. From a dynasty perspective, he’s probably a middle-of-the-road player that will struggle to maintain a starting role, assuming the Rams get better soon.

Victor Harris (Philadelphia FS 5th round)
Every rookie coming into the NFL dreams of locking up a starting role, and Harris was no different, even as a 5th rounder with a snowballs chance in Hell. Heck, he never even played a down at safety in college and was learning that role in camp. But thinking he could land a role on the Eagles, a top-tier NFL defensive unit with had just signed Sean Jones from Cleveland was insanity. Harris should have seen very little playing time, not to mention a starting role. That’s not to say he has done well in the role, as in fantasy terms he has managed just nine solos and no big plays. He’s unstartable in fantasy terms, and that’s probably not going to change much this year. Long term, he should be a solid player with limited fantasy appeal.

Michael Jenkins (New Orleans CB 1st round)
Now nobody can sugarcoat this one. Jenkins was a late arrival at camp with a lengthy hold out that put him way behind, and the team has played well in his absence. Jabrari Greer and Tracy Porter have performed well, and this could put off Jenkins entry into the starting job until next year. As it stands now, he’s seeing some time on special teams and spot play, but he was inactive in week five and has collected just one tackle all year. Forget about him this year and stash him on dynasty rosters. Even if something happened to Greer or Porter, Randal Gay would enter the starting lineup.

Rashad Johnson (Arizona S 3rd round)
Quite a bit was expected from Johnson this season, and it was thought he was ready to step into the nickel role from day one and eventually challenge Bryant McFadden for a starting role. But he’s a typical rookie, seemingly lost on some plays while showing glimpses of brilliance on others. But right now he’s way too raw to count on, and he will be limited to dime packages for the foreseeable future. Maybe next year, maybe not. There are safer bets out there for dynasty picks.

Keenan Lewis (Pittsburgh CB, 3rd round)
Lewis came into the year in the running for the starting job at corner, competing with William Gay and Deshea Townsend. But that now seems like a long time ago, as Lewis has been inactive the last three games. He’s virtually worthless right now, and has limited upside in a dynasty.

Sherrod Martin (Carolina SS 2nd round)
Almost a sad story, martin was drafted as the 59th overall pick in the draft and was expected to compete with Chris Gamble for a starting job. Nobody really expected him to win that job, but he was expected to be the nickel back and a solid rotation guy at the minimum. But along the way Martin missed assignments and tackles, and saw the “Captain” Munnerlyn pass him on the depth chart. Martin’s NFL career has taken a detour, and I’m not sure where it leads. I’d pass on him, and only hold him in the deepest keeper or dynasty leagues.

Darcel McBath (Denver CB 2nd round)
Andre Goodman is not considered a top-tier CB talent, and the Broncos have hoped McBath could come in and at least push Goodman. Well, that didn’t happen, and McBath will be looking to next year and a potential gig. He couldn’t manage the nickel role either, so he’s just a deep rotation player with the other rook, Alphonso Smith.

Jason McCourty (Tennessee CB 6th round)
McCourty’s entry into the starting lineup was a dozy. He was attacked on seemingly every passing play by Jaguars in a 37-17 loss. On the positive side, at least he wasn’t benched the following week and has been putting up some very useable fantasy stats, in two starts, McCourty has 10 solos. Don’t expect this move to be permanent though, when Nick Harper returns in week 10 from his broken forearm, he will return to the nickel role. But enjoy those stats for now, and he should be a nice pickup in most fantasy leagues. With this defense struggling, McCourty will be attacked.

Michael Mitchell (Oakland SS, 2nd round)
This one hurts to write. I went out on the shaky limb and said that Mitchell would be a top-fifteen DB this year, as well as the best rookie DB in the land. Of course, then his holdout, his injuries, and the fact he was pretty clueless in run defense cost him any opportunity. Instead it’s Tyvon Branch racking up points in Oakland, and Mitchell will have to wait until next year. Still hold on though, he still carries a ton of ability and tackle potential if he can get that starting job.

William Moore (Atlanta SS 2nd round)
Another huge disappointment in fantasy circles, Moore was penciled, not inked, into the starting SS role in preseason. But of course the injuries struck and Moore’s development was stunted to the point that he was not active until game five, where he saw just special teams action. He is fully recovered from his hammy issues, and should be more active, but he’s unlikely to unseat Erik Coleman at SS now. Still a top prospect in dynasty terms.

Ryan Mouton (Tennessee CB 3rd round)
Mouton is an enigma wrapped in a puzzle. He seems to keep doing things to drop him further down the ranks of players hunting for snaps. First, he loses the nickel role to fellow rookie Jason McCourty; the he loses his returner job after fumbling a punt and a kickoff in the Titans loss to the Jets in week 3. He looked to be the first corner off the bench until then, and has now been relegated to special team’s coverage an occasional dime role. There are too many decent rookie DBs to take a chance on Mouton, unless your league awards heavily for returns.

Captain Munnerlyn (Carolina CB 7th round)
Nobody saw this one coming. Especially rookie corner Sherrod Martin. Martin thought he was the blue-chip DB prospect on this team and was expected to fight for the nickel role. But a funny thing happened on the way to the regular season; Munnerlyn crashed the party and removed all doubt as to who the future starting corner will be. Maybe they will both inherit this role in time, but Munnerlyn’s is now. I am pretty high on him, especially in a dynasty role that requires CB spots.

Christopher Owens (Atlanta CB 3rd round)
The Falcons must feel snake bit so far this year. They spend both their second and third picks on CBS, and neither one can cover, tackle or make any kind of impact. Owens has zero stats so far, and the Falcons thought so much of him they went out and signed Tye Hill and Brian Williams. What that says in spades is that the team doesn’t even trust Owens in a dime role right now. No value, look elsewhere.

Jerraud Powers (Indianapolis 3rd round)

Talk about being in the right place at the right time, Powers has definitely taken advantage of the injury situations in Indianapolis. But when Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson returns, Powers will be battling it out with Tim Jennings for the nickel role. But this bodes very well for next season, and Management has had their eyes opened. Powers will be given a full opportunity next season to land one of the jobs, and in Indianapolis, that’s tantamount to success.

Glover Quin (Houston CB 4th round)
Quin has managed to make some impact this year filling in for injuries, but has earned his reps and will continue to get increased playing time. He has been good in coverage, but has shown some real talent in reading plays, being in the right place at the right time and has been a sure tackler. With Jacques Reeves expected back at near 100% this week, it will be interesting to see how the team treats Quin. He is clearly going to at least be the nickel back, but with the success so far he could remain the starter for a couple of weeks. Long term it’s hard to say how much worth Quin will have. This year he beat out a very bad Fred Bennett, and is playing only because of injuries. He has talent, and opportunity, but probably not a very high ceiling.

Alphonso Smith Denver CB 2nd round)
After putting up 4-1 in week one, Smith has completely disappeared. He’s officially listed as the team’s nickleback, but Jack Williams has been getting most of the reps. Smith came into the NFL with a pedigree as a big-play CB. In college he was one of only three players in the past decade to collect 20 or more interceptions in their collegiate career. He’s quick and talented, although at 5’9” he is not the ideal height you would like. He has upside if he can get untracked, so give him time to develop in dynasty leagues.

Sean Smith (Miami CB 2nd round)
One thing you can’t say about Smith is that he has played under the radar this year. He has made highlight-reel type plays (interception against Tennessee), although he has at times looked completely lost. But one thing’s for sure, he’s here to stay. At 6’3” and 214 pounds, he’s enough to make DB coaches drool and WR coaches flinch. Fantasy-wise he’s done nada, but next year if he can start putting up some big plays he should be a worthy starter in CB required leagues.

Lardarius Webb (Baltimore CB, 3rd round)
Way back in the combines, Webb turned heads by putting up the fastest time at the combines by any CB. Now in the pros he has managed to take the PR job from Chris Carr and there is talk that he could also take Carr’s job as the nickel back. He’s fast, aggressive and talented, and could be a nice sleeper prospect going into next season. I like his dynasty prospects, especially in leagues where returners get points.