Fantasy analysis: “The Tampa Bay Linebacker Shuffle”

” When I say linebackers, it may sound inclusive, but let’s get real to start with; Barrett Ruud is the starting MLB (Mike) of this team, so what we are really discussing is the SLB (Sam) and WLB (Will) spots on the team. The Buccaneers have one of the more fluid situations in the NFL in terms of depth chart changes when it comes to their line-backing crew, and this could continue right up until the season kicks off, assuming it ends then. The main reason for the issues they are facing is the departure of 14-year veteran and soon-to-be HOF’er Derrick Brooks. Tampa drafted for years striving to find a replacement, but big-play WLBs in a cover-two defense are as rare as hen’s teeth. In fact, the lack of a linebacker capable of playing the Tampa-2 weak-side spot is one of the main reasons the Bucs are changing to a standard 4-3 defensive scheme this year.
The reason for their turbulence is not caused by having a wealth of talented athletes competing for the two open spots. Actually in this case it’s more of a matter of the lesser of the available evils, and it’s really going to come down to who produces at the right time and manages to show some kind of consistency during camp. At this point in mid-July, it’s still anybody’s guess as to who the winner will be, although for me it’s easier to start with who it is NOT going to be, and start working the problem from the opposite end.
Let’s look at where we stand now:
Barrett Ruud, as previously mentioned is the MLB on this team, and Niko Koutouvides backs him up.  Not much will change from that perspective.  Adam Hayward is a SLB that can play in the middle as well.
Early in the year, the smart money would have said that the Bucs were planning on going with converted safety Jermaine Phillips at WLB and newly-acquired Angelo Crowell at SLB. But things change quickly in the NFL, and right now the betting is even money on a group of players.
At WLB, the job is still Phillips to lose. But second-year player Geno Hayes looked the best of the group in mini-camp, and his speed and athleticism may win him the job outright.  Hayes could have some potential at SLB as well, but at 226-pounds, that may be asking too much of him to battle TEs all day. Same goes for Phillips at 220.
On the Strong side, the team had hoped for Angelo Crowell to just step in and take that job, but early reports say he had a set-back in his recovery, something Crowell disputes. Right now Quincy Black is penciled in as the starter, with Adam Hayward also in the mix, but likely as simply a depth player. Black doesn’t have the experience of Crowell, but he does have a ton of speed and was a third-rounder back in ’07 that has not been given much of a shot to date.
My opinion is that on opening day we will see Barrett Rudd at MLB, Geno Hayes at WLB and Angelo Crowell at SLB, with Hayes likely coming off the field on passing downs. (In favor of Phillips) Rudd is definitely a three-down linebacker, and Crowell always has been in his career. From a fantasy value outlook, Ruud is a top-ten player, Crowell has some the potential as a LB3 in a 12-team league, and we will have to wait-and-see with Hayes. If he can somehow stay on the field in passing situations, he could move into a low-end LB2 or high-end LB3.

Rivera’s View

I have a feeling that Phillips will most likely start the season as the starter at WLB but Hayes will be in the starting lineup by the end of the 2009 campaign.

Phillips was an unrestricted free agent who was brought back, on a one-year contract, for the sole purpose of switching him to WLB for this season. The team knew that Piscitelli is ready to take over at SS. However, there was hesitation on the front office’s end to have Hayes come in and start because of the uncertainty of his recovery from last season’s knee injury and his inexperience at the professional level. As Brooks’ backup, Hayes rarely played and posted 13 total tackles for the season.

I believe Phillips is the one-year stopgap at the position while Hayes learns on the job. To me, Phillips is the better bet for 2009 but Hayes is the player to have in IDP keeper/dynasty leagues. In the end, neither one will be a good option this season because I agree with Hoops that Crowell will most likely join Ruud on third downs.

Recently, there’s been news that Crowell suffered some type of setback in his return from his own knee injury. If Crowell misses any time due to his knee, Hayes would be the leading candidate to start at SLB. In that scenario, I think that Phillips would be the other third-down linebacker and he would have more value than Hayes.

Let’s keep a close eye on how it all pans out in training camp and update our blog accordingly as we move further into August.

Tags: adam hayward, angelo crowell, barrett ruud, derrick brooks, geno hayes, IDP, jermaine phillips, LB, linebacker, linebackers, MLB, NFL, niko koutouvides, quincy black, sabby piscitelli, SLB, tampa bay, tampa bay buccaneers, WLB